Why 2024 Will be a Good Year, Hopefully

It is official. 2023 is behind us as it is now the latest chapter to be added to the history books. The year has been nothing short of interesting. It unraveled much like a blockbuster movie, with its fair share of twists and turns. Much of the world was affected in one way or another, especially by a couple of the so-called ‘global events’. Nonetheless, the time has come to look back upon the year that has been and extrapolate predictions and expectations for the forthcoming year, with the benefit of hindsight, of course.

To start, it would make sense to first analyze the predictions I had made for the year going into 2023. That article can be found by following this link. I would encourage those unfamiliar with what I had published to first go through it as I will be referring to what I had published then quite a lot.

Looking Back on 2023

The end of 2022 had brought much promise with it and optimism for the year 2023 was high. In my predictions for the year, I expected the economy to bounce back and continue to recover in the post-pandemic era. My reasoning was based on the fact the global economy was slowly but surely picking itself up from the economic recession which was exacerbated by global supply chain vulnerabilities exposed through COVID, increased fiscal spending (mostly financed by borrowing) through the recovery period, and a global chip shortage in 2021.

However, economic uncertainties, ‘stubborn’ inflation, and increased borrowing rates meant that economic growth slowed down from a global average of 3.1 percent in 2022 to about 2.3 percent as of June 2023.

Kenya’s economic stance was interesting, to say the least. Given the current economic vulnerabilities at the time, I expected that the economy would continue to strain even as the new year rolled in, hence giving time for the newly elected government to exert control over the situation. I did expect Ruto’s government to roll back the generous tax measures accorded in the post-pandemic recovery period and for him to go back on the economic subsidies accorded by Kenyatta’s government. However, in addition to all these measures, the government still maintained a high public wage bill with record levels of fiscal spending over their tenure, despite calls for a reduction in the same to help stabilize the economy.

Consequently, the Kenyan economy continues to be plagued by fiscal vulnerabilities due to high levels of public debt, a weakening currency, a high cost of living, and an unfavorable global financial situation. That said, Kenya’s economy grew at a rate of about 5 percent in 2023 as compared to the 4.8 percent average recorded across 2022. Despite the unfavorable economic conditions, sectors such as tourism and agriculture continued to grow. A return of heavy rains in 2023 and an end to the prolonged drought meant that the agricultural and agro-processing sectors recovered simultaneously.

Nonetheless, given the prevailing economic circumstances, this did little to bring down the price of basic commodities, which remain unattainable for many. Furthermore, fuel and energy prices continued to rise all through the year despite an increase in global supply which also affected the prices of most essential commodities.

Despite what many, including myself, saw as a relatively stable election period in 2022, political upheaval continues into 2023. Much of the political tension was perpetrated by the opposition who encouraged Kenyans to come out in protest against the incumbent government. Whereas these protests were meant to be nothing more than peaceful picketing, there were incidents of violence especially given that the government responded with repressive force through the police force. The protestors were not to be vindicated as well as there were incidents of them engaging in looting and the destruction of property. All in all, this contributed to propping an unstable political climate which as well known, is a turn-off for foreign investors, expatriates, and tourists.

No sooner had the world gotten to terms with the war going on in Ukraine than the ‘destiny overloads’ decided that another ‘globalized war’ would be fitting enough. On the 7^th of October 2023, the world woke up to the news that Hamas, the armed militant group that claims to represent the interests of Palestinians, launched surprise attacks into Israeli territory, killing many including innocent civilians, and taking hostage even more. More than 1,200 Israelis and other foreign nationals were killed and a further 5,400 were injured in the attack.  

As a result, Israel responded with repressive attacks of her own, launching a plethora of airstrikes into Gaza and setting up an offensive of their own into Palestinian territory.

Much of the world came swarming down in support of either faction causing a further polarization on the issue. It is thus unsurprising that there was a consequent increase in waves of anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, anti-Arab, and anti-Palestinian racism, especially on the various internet platforms. Of much greater concern, however, is the humanitarian crisis that is at the heart of the conflict which has in turn led to a record high number of internally displaced refugees and civilian casualties.

Despite the various attempts at a ceasefire, the situation remains dire as the provision of aid remains scanty at best. As of December 2023, over 18,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza a huge majority of whom are women and children, with over 50,000 more injured. 1.9 million Palestinians, about 85 percent of Gaza’s population, have also been displaced. The war has exposed disregard for the adherence to International Humanitarian Law in both factions.

During the invasion of Israel, Hamas intentionally targeted civilians, which is itself a war crime, but they also committed atrocious acts of sexual assault as well as the murder of hostages. On 12th December, 19 of the 135 Israeli hostages taken into Gaza by Hamas were declared dead. Israel on its part has been accused of its indiscriminate and at times, targeted shelling of civilian targets, including journalists and other members of the press. The Israeli offensive has had a huge number of child casualties as well, especially given that of the 18,000 Palestinians killed, over 7,000 are children.

Predictions for the year 2024

Enough with the ramblings about 2023. What is there to look forward to for 2024? 2023 was a year full of letdowns, or so it feels. Many hoped that things would get better even as the year moved along. However, much of the global economy continued to slump and most countries, even those in the developed regions of the world have continued to struggle.

The conflicts in Ukraine, Palestine, the Caucuses (Azerbaijan and Armenia), Africa (Sudan), and simmering tensions in the South China Sea have continued to threaten political stability on a global scale. The conversation on environmental conservation in climate change has continually stalled and the sudden emergence of AI technology has given the world little time to adapt and adjust accordingly.

Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to slow down even more in 2024. Europe and North America will continue to witness periods of relatively slow real GDP growth even as inflation rates remain high and consumer spending low. The value of the US dollar will also depreciate going into the new year given the reduced growth rate in the country. Consequently, the Chinese economy, which has also been on a slump, is expected to recover slowly but surely and its growth rate should surpass that of the US.

2024 will also be a busy calendar with most of the global powers such as the US, the UK, and India going to the polls, and this may create a somewhat uncertain political climate. The situation is particularly interesting in the US where many political analysts expect Donald Trump to win the elections and gain a second term in office. Trump’s nationalist policies paired with a slowdown in economic growth could see the US take up more of an isolationist foreign policy, allowing countries such as China and Russia to continue expanding their efforts towards exerting a global influence.

Developing economies such as Kenya could benefit from the slow-down in economic growth in the global north. A weakening US dollar could help strengthen the Kenyan shilling which traded at Kshs 157.3 to the dollar as of December 2023 up from Kshs 123.3 at the same period in 2022 and Kshs 110.2 as of 2021. Furthermore, inflation in the country is also expected to ease to 6.8 percent in 2024 after going as high as 8.78 percent in 2023.  All in all, the economic situation in the country should ease up, reinvigorating economic confidence. Maintaining the high-interest rates should inadvertently keep consumer spending low and help lower inflation to a manageable level.

Global Geo-Politics

However, one cannot make predictions for the year without taking into consideration the everchanging and continually volatile geo-political climate. The conflict in Israel-Palestine caught everyone off guard, including the Israelis, much like how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 did. Both of these conflicts have not only adversely affected those directly involved but much of the world as well. In addition to stretching foreign aid resources, they have also served to deepen the wedges between the foreign relations of the world’s most powerful nations.

The presence of nuclear weapons only serves to escalate the situation as a country that possesses these can choose to deploy them in defense of its ally, say the United States chooses to deploy nukes against Palestine on behalf of its ally, Israel. While the possibility of this happening remains incredibly low, we are the closest we’ve been to a global nuclear war since 1947 as the Doomsday Clock is at 90 seconds to midnight. Hopefully, no other war frontier opens up in 2024 as that would only push us closer towards self-annihilation.

Should Trump become President in 2024, there might be a huge shift in the conduct of foreign affairs by the US. As earlier mentioned, the US will most likely become more intrinsic and more removed from global affairs. It may motivate countries such as China to pursue interests that have been previously gatekept by the US and by interests, I mean finally getting a chance to invade Taiwan. The US has pledged to defend Taiwan alongside some of its other Southeast Asian allies who for years have been crucial in sustaining the US’s manufacturing industry.

For years, the US has been on edge about allowing her electronic silicon chips to end up in Chinese hands. The US outsources the manufacture of these chips to Taiwan and some of her East Asian neighbors hence why she is willing to go to war to defend Taiwan. However, the US has recently chosen to move chip manufacturing back to her mainland, as part of the radical nationalistic agenda which will by all means be sustained should Trump come to power. Doing so will help ease tensions with China over Taiwan but it will make the island less relevant to US interests and perhaps allow China to invade. Read more on the silicon chip ‘warfare’ here.

Climate Change and Environmental Conservation

2023 played host to a host of conventions on the climate and the environment. The Africa Climate Summit, the first of its kind was held in Nairobi, Kenya on September 4^th-8^th. It was meant to be a platform for the continent to weigh in on the issue of climate change and raise its voice on what can and should be done to alleviate the situation. The Nairobi Declaration that resulted from the proceedings of the convention incentivized the global powers responsible for much of global warming to ‘own up to their mess’ and reduce carbon emissions.

More importantly, it also called for the unlocking of climate financing mechanisms for Africa which has been adversely affected by climate change. These sentiments were further pushed during the Conference of Parties or COP 28 held in Dubai, which aimed to build a nexus between conflict and climate change. During COP 28, the participants proposed for a widened mandate on climate financing to conflict-ridden countries, especially seeing as countries that are most politically unstable also happen to be most affected by climate change.

Nonetheless, one has to continually question the effectiveness of the climate summits in successfully addressing the issues at hand. Adherence to the proposals and submissions raised remains a bygone issue as countries find ways of circumventing these issues after all. Take the issue of climate financing, which despite being raised at every other summit, remains incredibly elusive as the developed countries in particular are not as willing to release the required funds.  

A plethora of climate summits are expected to be hosted all through 2024, with all culminating at COP 29 to be held in Azerbaijan. Will we see an extrapolation of this pattern, where there is a lot of negotiation and signing of agreements but no one is ready to walk the talk?

Technological Advancements

2023 saw the continued advancements in technology, particularly with the emergence of the Chat GPT, (an AI language model built to emulate human behavior in one-on-one communication settings). The AI technology took the world by storm when it was initially launched in November 2022. Open AI, the parent company responsible for developing and maintaining the technology, has links with other technological juggernauts Elon Musk (who was among the founders of the company but left when he could exert full control over it). Open AI is in turn, owned by Microsoft which means that the technological powerhouse has full access to Chat GPT and other AI models.

Microsoft has not dithered in utilizing its access to Chat GPT, quickly integrating it into its suite of programs such as Bing and Azure Cloud Services. Google, perhaps feeling under the cosh, was quick to respond launching its own AI language model in Bard AI, to less fanfare and a poor reception. This back and forth was only a sliver of the so-called ‘tech wars’ even as technological powerhouses wrestle over control for increasingly valuable technological space.

Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) have also been another avenue for competition between tech giants, in Apple and Meta. Both have been in the works developing their VR/AR technology, with Meta launching its VR headset Quest 3 and Apple’s Vision Pro is expected to start shipping in early 2024. VR/AR is proving to be the next frontier in technological development and it should come as no surprise that over 2024, we will see efforts towards their integration into everyday living.

Many experts agree that both VR/AR and AI technologies are still quite early in their developmental phases and that it will take a while before they become mainstream technologies. However, in addition to the positives that these technologies bring, they also prevent avenues for exploitation and manipulation. The responsible governing authorities have been slow to react and prepare for the eventualities of regulating the use of these technologies. One may argue that the global tech environment remains quite unregulated, especially given the countless crypto scams, wire fraud, tech support scams, identity theft, and investment scams that are perpetuated in the tech world.

Will 2024 be a Good Year?

So, will 2024 be a good year? Hopefully. One cannot say beyond any stretch of the imagination that it will be better than 2023. However, optimism is an important virtue to staying sane in today’s world as it can be easy to stay fixated on the negatives. Maybe we will see an improvement in the quality of life, particularly for those of us in the developing corner of the world. Perhaps there will be a pursuit towards peace and the resolution of conflict by diplomatic means. Nevertheless, may the world be a better place in the coming year, or at least, it will become a slightly more tolerable place than it was in 2023.