Why 2023 will be a Good Year, Hopefully.

2022 came and went in quite a remarkable fashion. It was a learning experience for many, me included. However, as we take stock of the year that was, it is equally important to look ahead to the prospects offered by this new year. The past three years have been times of unprecedented turmoil for many in Kenya and the world over. The COVID-19 pandemic and the rampage it left behind are still fresh in the memories of many. Nevertheless, it is with much anticipation that we head into this new year, hoping for the best but yet still bracing ourselves for the worst.

Economic Recovery

Kenya has had a very stable economic recovery journey post-COVID and is back on track to be among the fastest-growing nations in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021 and 2022, the growth was pretty decent in all sectors of the economy and it is hoped that this trend continues into 2023. The first half of 2022 saw a growth of 6% but this rate would fall to only about 4.7% in the final quarter of 2022, despite an expected figure of about 5.6%.

This was perhaps due to the prolonged drought witnessed in many regions of the country throughout much of 2022 and a rise in levels of inflation which meant that the cost of basic household commodities was quite high for much of the population. Furthermore, this might be evidence of the shockwaves of the global recession being witnessed in much of the world today finally catching up with Kenya.

The sharp growth witnessed in 2021 and early 2022 was a result of government efforts to improve spending and stimulate growth by relaxing taxation measures, printing more currency as well as implementing various economic subsidies. However, as the public coffers run dry and government spending is expected to go down in Ruto’s regime, the public will remain exposed to the harsh economic realities being experienced currently. If these trends are anything to go by, it is expected then that the first months of 2023 may be incredibly tough for many Kenyans.

However, since many regions of the countries are currently receiving ample rainfall, a bumper harvest season should be expected which may help meet the supply of food and thus lower the price of many basic commodities. This may also reduce the importation of food by the government and free up more funds to be spent on other public programs. Fuel costs may remain high in the first few months but as the Global North leaves winter and approaches spring, expect the demand for fuel to reduce and the prices to go down. Furthermore, more economic growth should be expected as even more industries return to their normal production capacities post-COVID.

The Success of the 2022 General Elections.

Every five years, Kenya’s economy grinds to a go-slow as General Elections take place. This year was no different, but the ramifications from the same were in a much more positive light. This year’s election period was quite peaceful with minimal to little skirmishes being witnessed throughout the period. Much like in 2013 and 2017, the resilience and effectiveness of Kenya’s Judicial system were once again on show even as cases for disputed results were handled in an exemplary way. The biggest winner was Kenya’s democracy as once again, the country proved why it is held in such high regard in the region in terms of its democratic processes.

As the New Year approaches, it is hoped that the focus shall be shifted away from political innuendo and towards nation-building. President Ruto and his government have a long way to go in fulfilling the myriad of promises they gave to Kenya in their various campaign trails and it is expected many of these will be delivered in 2023.

Ukraine: Putin vs Everyone.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is a man under siege. He underestimated the resilience of Ukraine when he invaded the country in early 2022. Putin expected a quick and decisive victory and that the Ukraine population would bend over backwards for him. However, despite the success of his invasion in the first few months, the Ukrainian people have proven to be incredibly tough to break and have mounted a strong resistance against him and his forces.

The war is now locked in a bloody stalemate, with Putin on the losing side. He cannot go back to Russia empty-handed as the war is getting pretty unpopular with the Russian population and thus he is resorting to a “throw everything on the wall and hope it sticks” kind of warfare. Furthermore, Europe is proving to be incredibly resilient against its dependence on Russian gas. Despite turning off the taps for the gas to the rest of Europe, the continent has adopted aggressive reduced energy-spending restrictions even during the harsh days of winter including reviving other sources of energy, for example, coal extraction.

As a result, Russia’s economy, which is highly dependent on the sale of the same gas is quickly spiraling downwards and Russia’s isolation from the World Economy means that Putin has only so much time before everything falls apart. The Global Coalition led by NATO has been successfully supporting Ukraine through providing arms and supplies something which has helped them stand up to Russia even better. Even China, perhaps Putin’s closest ally at the moment remains far removed from the conflict as it has bigger fish to fry closer to home. All in all, Putin is a man currently clutching at straws.

Nevertheless, Putin’s desperation to finish the job he started should be taken very seriously. Anything can happen at this moment. A volatile situation of instability between the world powers and the presence of Nuclear weapons between them is always a recipe for disaster. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight early last year in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion.

Midnight is considered Armageddon and the total annihilation of human civilization, by the way. I doubt that that number will improve this year with the threat of nuclear weapons an ever-present harbinger in our world today. Hope is still alive though. Diplomacy is always an effective and deployable option even in terms of great turmoil such as these.

All in all, I am looking forward to what this year has to offer. My advice to everyone is to expect surprises, both good and bad. If Lionel Messi winning the World Cup is anything to go by, then this year will be great, much like the GOAT himself. Stay safe. Stay positive. Happy New Year.

Read on: Why 2024 will be a good year, hopefully.