Of Trump’s Inauguration, Ceasefires in Israel and M23’s Resurgence: Weekly Review 04/52

US President Donald Trump hit the ground running upon his inauguration, a path of peace is seemingly emerging in Israel, Palestine and Lebanon. Meanwhile in Kenya, the embattled former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua goes on the offensive.

It happened in Kenya: Gachagua’s political inroads.

Speculation in Kenya’s political scene has continued to ramp up even as January approaches. Rigathi Gachagua, the former Deputy President who the Kenyan parliament impeached, had promised to announce his next political endeavour before the end of the month.

Gachagua has been making inroads in the country, seeking to create a unified opposition front against President Ruto in the lead-up to the 2027 elections. He attended the launch of Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K party headquarters and visited the Azimio la Umoja deputy presidential candidate Martha Karua at her home in Gichugu, Kirinyaga County.

The Registrar of Political Parties in Kenya announced the initiation of the registration process of several political outfits. While none of these political outfits seem to have a direct connection to Gachagua, these are still quite early days and Gachagua may be taking his time to make his next political decision.

Gachagua has been booted out as the deputy party leader of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the ruling political party in the country led by President William Ruto. He was replaced by the current deputy president, Kithure Kindiki.

The Kenyan High Court is also expected to continue hearing several cases that challenge Gachagua’s impeachment. The cases had been adjourned pursuant to Gachagua’s appeal at the Court of Appeal, challenging the jurisdiction of Deputy Chief Justice Philomena Mwilu in appointing a three-judge panel to hear and determine Gachagua’s petition.

In his petition, Gachagua holds that his impeachment was unconstitutional and didn’t involve the due process of public participation.

On January 27, President Ruto announced the appointment of a nine-member selection panel to oversee the recruitment of IEBC chairperson and members. This follows calls by the country’s opposition led by Kalonzo Musyoka for the government to reconstitute the country’s electoral management body in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.

Elsewhere, jitters rose within Kenya’s armed forces as the Defence Ministry proceeded with an unpopular move to scrap a lunch subsidy for all KDF soldiers in favour of a pay-as-you-eat model. The ministry cited inefficiency and inconsistency with the subsidy system. The new feeding model is expected to be implemented in the next financial year, starting July 1, 2025.

The ration-cash model was introduced in 2000 when provisions for other meals such as breakfast and dinner were scrapped. It has been continuously revised to cushion soldiers from inflation rates.

The government exchequer expects to save Ksh 2-3 Billion with this move.

The inefficiencies highlighted are representative of larger logistical shortcomings within the country’s Defence Forces which is expected to contain the unending threat of ISIS insurgents within the region.

Global Events: Trump’s sweeping executive orders and the Israel-Palestine ceasefire

Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, has been long-awaited since his reflection to office in November 2024.

In his inauguration speech, Trump to ‘put America first’ and bring an ‘end to American decline’. He promised to implement a raft of executive measures to ‘begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of common sense’.

True to his word, Trump signed a raft of 26 executive orders, 12 memos and gave 4 proclamations with his first 100 hours of office. He also unilaterally revoked 78 executive orders issued under the Biden administration.

Trump’s executive orders incentivize the government to take action to;

• Eliminate Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) measure and reinstate merit-based hiring practices. The DEI concept is a hiring concept utilized in America’s workforce and is meant to create an environment of respect and fairness, mostly based on race and sexual preference for underprivileged society groups. Nonetheless, it has been criticized for its discriminatory nature as it attempts to resolve social and sexual discrimination by disadvantaging other social groups (particularly white American citizens).
• Recognize male and female as the two sexes in handing out American passports.
• Declare the influx of refugees through the Mexico border as a national emergency, which allows for the enforcement of stricter border controls and unlocking of funds for the construction of a border wall.
• Bar asylum seekers from accessing the United States through the Mexico border. Trump’s orders also advocated for a ‘Remain in Mexico policy’ for those seeking to have their asylum cases heard in the United States.
• Suspend the Refugee Admissions Program.
• End birthright citizenship for children born in the United States to undocumented migrants.
• Deploy more state troops to secure the American border and to forcibly deport any ‘illegal immigrants’ living within the United States; including more than 1 million asylum seekers ‘paroled’ into the country during the Biden administration.
• Propose the classification of drug cartels as terrorists.
• Freeze federal hiring of new federal employees except in sectors of public safety and national security.
• Restore the Schedule F classification of federal workers that would grant them less protection from undue political pressures that is normally accorded to career civil servants.
• Ended the work-from-home mandate for federal employees, directing them to return to work.
• Eliminate the environmental justice program approved and created under the Biden administration.
• Roll back on the ‘tailpipe emission regulations’ on light trucks introduced under the Biden administration which had incentivized vehicle manufacturers to produce more electric vehicles.
• Withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement.
• Withdrew the United States from the World Health Organization.
• Declare a national energy emergency, the first of its kind, which would suspend environmental governance rules allowing the United States to tap into energy reserves from oil, coal, nuclear and hydropower sources.
• Rescind Biden’s provisional orders against exploring energy reserves in Alaska’s wilderness and offshore.
• Rename Alaska’s Mt. Denali to Mt. McKinsey and the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
• Grant security clearance to White House workers without undertaking background security checks.

Trump’s message is quite clear. America is no longer the global power it once was because it has given itself up to being taken advantage of, in the guise of maintaining global order. Trump believes that the only to rescue the country is by pivoting it away from a ‘globalist’ agenda to one that favours America’s interests first.

Throughout his campaign, he did not hold back from blaming the past administration for America’s troubles. He promised to take necessary measures to pivot and re-position America’s interests, emphasizing domestic prosperity over seeking to influence global policy.

Read More: How Trump rode the wave of populism to become the US President.

His inauguration was not without event controversy. Elon Musk, the world’s richest person currently and a chief campaigner for Trump, demonstrated what appeared to be a Nazi salute during his speech. Accidental or otherwise, Musk’s actions were met with huge backlash online and across mainstream media.

Both Trump and Musk have been accused of holding conservative views, particularly those of race and social hierarchy, that share uncanny similarities with Nazi Fascism.

Nonetheless, Trump appointed Musk to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is aimed at cutting costs on government bureaucracies and spending.

Furthermore, Trump also put into place an executive order directing the Attorney General not to enforce the TikTok ban passed by the US Congress at the end of Biden’s administration. The ban is to be suspended for 75 days to allow for a resolution for the platform’s operation that protects the country’s national security interests.

The legality of this order is a grey area. Trump does not have the executive power to overturn a law passed by Congress. Furthermore, the ban can only be delayed if TikTok is in the process of acquisition by a US-based company. TikTok has, however, stated that it does not intend to sell its assets to a US-based company. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether US tech companies (Google and Apple, especially) will continue to distribute TikTok to their user bases.

Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

A ceasefire signed between Lebanon and Israel on November 27, 2024, would ensure the end of hostilities between the two countries and the pulling back of Israeli troops from Lebanon.

Israel agreed to pull all troops from southern Lebanon over a 60-day period, leaving room for a UN peacekeeping force to move in. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would also move into southern Lebanon and would be tasked with preventing the Hezbollah militia from regrouping.

Israel had launched an offensive into Lebanon with the aim of neutralizing the threat of Hezbollah, an armed militia group with ties to Hamas and Iran. Hezbollah had launched several airstrikes into Israeli territory with the aim of supporting Hamas in the war against Israel.

As part of the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah would also retreat north and halt any military offensives into Israel.

However, as the 60-day deadline drew closer on Sunday, January 26, the ceasefire agreement wasn’t fully enforced. Israel still maintained a military presence in the south-east and maintained control over several Lebanese villages in the region.

Israel also failed to respect the terms of the ceasefire when it fired at Lebanese citizens attempting to move into the Israeli-occupied villages. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, at least 90 people have been killed by Israeli forces since the agreement was signed.

Israel states that it seeks to hold on to the region for its own security, stating that the UN peacekeeping forces and the Lebanese Armed Forces have been slow to move in and occupy the region as per the agreement. It argues that this is creating the perfect conditions for Hezbollah to regroup.

Israel has since sought an extension to the deadline, which was consequently pushed to February 18.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

Following a period of tense negotiations led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, a ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas came into effect on January 19. The ceasefire agreement is to be undertaken in three stages.

On the first day of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas released 3 female Israeli soldiers in exchange for 90 Palestinians. In the following days, 4 more Israelis would be released in exchange for 200 Palestinians. Most of the released Palestinians were sent into the West Bank or East Jerusalem while some were sent into Gaza itself.

Of the 251 hostages captured by Hamas, only 124 have been returned alive to Israel. 75 bodies have also been recovered by Israeli forces through repatriation and military operations in Gaza. 90 hostages are believed to be held by Hamas, 87 of whom were captured on October 7, 2023, and 3 of whom had been captured earlier.

Israel is believed to hold about 5,200 Palestinians in its prisons, 3,000 of whom are held under ‘administrative detention’. Most of these Palestinian prisoners have been tried under unlawful legal jurisdictions or are being held without any trial.

Back to the ceasefire.

Furthermore, the Israeli military opened up the Netzarim corridor which has restricted access to Northern Gaza, allowing many Palestinian refugees to go back into their homes. 600 lorries carrying aid and fuel were also allowed into Gaza, a number which was exceeded even on day 1 of the ceasefire.

Nonetheless, a humanitarian crisis looms over Gaza. There are genuine fears of famine and food shortage, particularly in areas held by and controlled by Israeli forces. The tense standoff between Israeli and Hamas forces could put many innocent civilians in the crossfire should fighting resume.

Furthermore, it is estimated that between 60 and 70% of buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, leaving much of the returning population without shelter. Rebuilding Gaza could take years if not decades.

Nonetheless, the ceasefire has not been smooth sailing all through. Hamas has told Israel that 8 of the 33 hostages meant to be released during the first stage of the ceasefire are dead.

Israel has been ramping up military activity in the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, launching a military campaign aimed at disarming Palestinian militias in the region. 12 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank in armed confrontation with Israeli forces since the Gaza ceasefire was signed.

The election of Donald Trump, who is quite receptive with the Israeli government, is also seeming to embolden the Israelis to annex the West Bank territory from Palestine. Israel has been building internationally sanctioned settlements within the West Bank for decades, much to the condemnation the internationally community. Israel’s close ties with the United States have granted it unmerited favour from the Americans who seem to look the other way whenever Israel commits any atrocities.

Elsewhere in the Region: M23 takes over a major city in DRC.

M23 rebels completed their advance and takeover of the city of Goma in eastern DRC.

Goma is a major city in Eastern Congo and is home to 780,000 as of December 2024.

The resurgence of M23 rebels follows the souring of relations between Rwanda and DRC. Peace talks between the two countries hit a deadlock after Rwanda boycotted a meeting on a round of talks aimed at ending the conflict in Eastern DRC in December 2024.

Rwanda is believed to be the main financier of the M23 rebel group. M23 is made up of mainly Tutsi former Congolese army soldiers who decry the Kinshasa’s government for supporting Hutu rebels in the region.

Tensions between Rwanda and DRC date back to the Rwanda Genocide and the First and Second Congo Civil Wars. Rwanda accuses the DRC of supporting Hutu rebels and militias, most of whom were the masterminds behind the Rwandan genocide. Kagame’s government views the rebel movements as a threat to national security and over the years it has been sending Rwandese forces over the borders to suppress the rebels, much to the displeasure of the DRC government.

It also supports the M23 movement, which it views as a key ally in keeping the rebels away from the Rwandese borders. It is believed that the Rwandese Forces supported the M23 rebels in taking Goma.

Rwanda faults the Kinshasa government for its slow commitment towards expunging the rebel groups operating in Eastern DRC, which threaten Rwanda’s security and wellbeing.

On the other hand, DRC blames Rwanda for sponsoring instability in Eastern Congo by supporting rebel groups such as M23. Kagame and Tshisekedi have been publicly admonishing each other and have ben growing less averse to peace processes. Tshisekedi continues to cry foul over Rwanda’s obstinence to commit to a peace process while Kagame blames DRC’s government for incompetence in handling diffusing the escalation in Eastern DRC.

In the lead up to the invasion of Goma, DRC had cut diplomatic ties with Rwanda.

The renewed confrontation have also brought a stop to the Nairobi Process (under the East African Community) and the Luanda Peace Talks led by Angolan President Joao Laurenco.

DRC has blamed leaders allied to Kagame such as the Kenyan President William Ruto for stalling the peace agreements. Kenya and DRC have also involved in a diplomatic row which threatened the severing of ties between the two countries.

As war continues to rage in the region, it is hoped that a lasting solution will be found to bring peace to wartorn region.

That’s it for this week!

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