THE 2022 KENYAN GENERAL ELECTION: THE MAKINGS OF KENYA’S FIFTH PRESIDENT

Part one: The Players and The Playing Field.

Kenya is one of the most democratically progressive countries in Africa at least. Over her years as an independent republic, Kenya was one of the few African countries that has never witnessed a coup or any form of hostile government takeover. As per the 2020 EIU Democratic rankings, Kenya ranked 95^th globally and 13^th in Sub-Saharan Africa ranking lower than countries such as Senegal, Mauritius, and her neighbor Tanzania. It should be noted that this ranking was carried out in the wake of the stringent enforcement of the COVID curfews. Furthermore, the repeat of the 2017 General Elections left a dirty mark on the election process of the country. Consequently, going into the 2022 General Election, there were a lot of expectations placed upon the Elections body of Kenya, The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to deliver a free and fair election. The country also harbors a lot of economic interests from global players as it is also a regional economic powerhouse, to say the least. This explains the interest from all over the world that the country managed to attract as it went to the polls as many players from other countries to cooperations and organizations had their interests vested in the outcome of these elections.

Heading into the 9^th of August, IEBC had a mountain to climb in delivering free and fair elections. Firstly, the ghosts of the annulled 2017 elections haunted the commission and it had the uphill task of convincing Kenyans that it would deliver credible elections this time. The Post-Election Violence of 2007 is also still quite fresh in the minds of many Kenyans and as the elections drew nearer the tension in the air was palpable. However, there was a massive drive and desire especially among the younger population to have a peaceful contest this time. Nevertheless, there was still a lot to be done and the expectations upon the IEBC were immense.

The 2022 General Elections will go down in history as among the most closely contested elections in Kenyan history. It pitted two of Kenya’s most seasoned politicians in Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga against the immediate former Deputy President Dr. William Samoei Ruto. Raila is a seasoned politician in Kenya and the son of one of the founding fathers of Kenya, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. To say that his bid to become President has been unsuccessful would be an understatement as he had previously contested without success in 1997, 2002, 2013, and 2017. Many believed that this would be his last shot at the seat due to his age and therefore this had to be the one that counted. Unlike his previous attempts, this time he had the full backing of the administration in President Uhuru Kenyatta who had ditched his deputy to support him. The formulation of the Azimio la Umoja Coalition which he used to vie for the Presidency promised to take the country by storm.

Dr. Ruto was taking his first shot at the presidency having been successfully elected as Deputy President under Uhuru Kenyatta in 2013 and 2017. Having been sidelined by his senior in 2018 following the BBI (Building Bridges Initiative) fallout, Dr. Ruto knew that he had a mountain to climb and began his work early. Slowly but surely, he built his numbers, recruiting his footsoldiers mostly from the ruling Jubilee Party but also from Raila’s own backyard and selling his agenda to the masses even in his capacity as Deputy President. This resulted in the formulation of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance which, to be honest, was mostly dominated by his party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Heading into the home stretch of the elections, the polls predicted a close contest. Both candidates have a massive, loyal and diehard following in each of their stronghold regions. Furthermore, each of them chose their own generals from the crop of very seasoned politicians to compensate for the numbers they lacked in regions other than their strongholds. However, despite the close contest, many voters especially in the younger demographic still felt unmotivated to go out and vote. Up until the eve of the elections, there was also a huge number of undecided voters and this explained the aggressive push from both sides of the political divide in the homestretch phase of the campaigns to deliver as many voters to either camp as possible.

August 9^th. The DDay. People were up early to go out and vote. There was however less enthusiasm compared to previous elections. This could be explained by the fact that given the tough economic times, many Kenyans just wanted to ‘get over and done with the elections and go back to work soonest possible. Nevertheless, the voting process was relatively calm and peaceful and as soon as the voting was done, many returned to their homes and peacefully waited for the results.

Credit must be given where credit was due. The IEBC all in all did a good job in carrying out the elections as freely as possible. The logistical supply of electoral material and the officiating of the voting and tallying in polling stations, although it was not perfect, was duly fulfilled in due time. The transmission of results and their subsequent publishing on the public portal was also a move in the right direction. In a nutshell, the IEBC took a leaf from the 2017 polls and was hellbent on ensuring that the elections delivered were to be free and fair. On the surface at least.

Six long, nail-biting days later, Mr. Wafula Chebukati, the IEBC chair and the National Returning Officer for the 2022 Presidential Elections amid massive disgruntlement from the Azimio camp declares Dr. Ruto President-elect having garnered 50.47% of the votes cast. Mr. Odinga was defeated by about 200,000 votes according to the commission’s official numbers. Kenyans can finally breathe a sigh of relief as they have been left to speculate the results from the various media outlets who in turn sourced them from IEBC’s public portal.

Unconvinced by the results, Mr. Odinga and the Azimio camp move to the Supreme Court to file a petition regarding the validity and constitutionality of the results. The Court, however, on September 5^th tossed out the petitions maintaining that the results were free and fair. Therefore, after close to a long month of back and forth, Dr. Ruto’s victory is upheld and he is Kenya’s 5^th President.

As a Kenyan citizen, I cannot help but celebrate how far our democracy has come and that today, we are reaping the fruits of living in such a society. In fact, I believe it is quite a privilege for us that we take for granted nonetheless that we have a choice in who our leaders are. In part two of this series, I shall take a deeper dive into this year’s elections, explaining the roots of the rivalry, the role of the IEBC, and what the results mean for Kenya and the Kenyan (political and economic) situation before and after the elections. More importantly, I shall also divulge why I chose to vote for the Azimio Camp on August 9^th and what the outcome of this election means for me and the rest of the 45 million Kenyans, those who did and didn’t support the incoming administration. By so doing, I hope to try and demystify the divisive nature of Kenyan politics from a voter’s perspective and in so doing comprehend what informs political decisions for the voters at least.