How the Russia-Ukraine War is being Fought in Africa

It has been about three years since the Russia-Ukraine war started. What started as a ‘special military’ operation by Putin’s government has since evolved into an unending battle with global implications. As it turns out, Africa has become the new destination of this war.

Background: Russia’s long-standing invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to Putin, the invasion was a necessary action taken to ‘demilitarize’ the country and to protect the national interests of Russia.

In reality, however, Ukraine’s close ties with the West and its desire to join NATO and the European Union (EU) had Russia on edge. Ukraine was in the process of joining NATO and the EU, which jeopardised Russia’s interests. NATO and the EU are closely linked to the United States, which is Russia’s biggest adversary in the international sphere.

Russia’s reservations about NATO’s and the EU’s influence date back to the fall of the Soviet Union. Ukraine, much like other former Eastern Bloc members who were part of the Soviet Union were granted full autonomy. However, Russia still wished to retain its influence over them and provided that they should not join economic and security alliances dominated by Western European countries and the United States; i.e. NATO and the EU.

However, student and youth-led protests and anti-government movements referred to as colour revolutions, became widespread in many of these countries, particularly in the wake of the 21st century. The citizens of these countries demanded true autonomy from Russia in addition to democratic and pro-western governments. They wanted to join NATO and the EU and be part of the prosperity in Western Europe.

Ukraine’s own Orange Revolution brought these issues to light and led to the ouster of the pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych in 2004. Russia raised concerns that the United States and its allies had a part to play in these revolutions.

Over the next decade, Ukraine and much of its former Eastern Bloc counterparts took huge steps towards achieving their goal of joining NATO and the EU.

In 2014, the Ukrainian parliament voted to approve an agreement that allowed Ukraine to join the EU. Russia then issued a statement warning that it would recognize Ukraine’s status as an independent state if it joined the EU. Russia also supported separatist movements operating in the Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbast) regions of Ukraine. Ukraine launched a military campaign against these movements, labelling them as terrorist organizations.

Consequently, Russia invaded the Donbast to support the separatist movements against Ukraine and led an occupation of the Crimean peninsula, a strategic Ukrainian territory in the Black Sea. After an initially intense offensive, the fighting had ground to a stalemate by 2016 with Russia maintaining a military presence on the border with Ukraine.

In 2022, Russia launched a full-scale offensive into Ukraine using the bases of support on the border and within the separatist regions. Putin continued to find reasons to justify his military actions, claiming that Ukraine does not deserve to exist as an independent state and that it should be part of Russia.

His reasoning had little appeal internationally. The West quickly rushed to Ukraine’s aid, providing the country with military and logistical support to keep Russia at bay. Russia was slapped with heavy international sanctions.

As of January 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war is still stuck in an uncomfortable stalemate. Russia controls an area of more than 4,000 square kilometres encompassing four Ukrainian oblasts (regions) i.e. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine has also launched military offensives into Russia, including one in Russia’s Kursk oblast.

There have been over 600,000 Russian military casualties and 413,000 Ukrainian military casualties since the war broke out in 2022. 39,081 civilian casualties have also been reported in Ukraine throughout the war.

Beyond Ukrainian Borders

To understand how Russia operates in and beyond Ukraine, you need to understand the role played by the Wagner Group.

Wagner Group is a key player in Russia’s military operations in and beyond Ukraine.

Wagner Group is a Russian state-funded private military company and a semi-independent faction of the Russian army. It was founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a close ally of Vladimir Putin, until he launched a military offensive against Moscow in June 2023.

Prigozhin later died under mysterious circumstances when his plane crashed on a flight from Moscow. Wagner Group was reconstituted and integrated even more to be part of the Russian military machinery.

Following Prigozhin’s death, units within Wagner Group operating in Africa were incorporated into the ‘Africa Corps’ and placed under the oversight of Russia’s military command.

Russia uses the Wagner Group as a tool to interact at an ‘unofficial capacity’ on its behalf. It is independent enough to not be directly tied to the Russian government while being subservient enough to serve Russia’s interests.

However, it is still quite different from other private military companies globally. Wagner Group also acts as Russia’s representative in diplomatic engagements and economic transactions with both state and non-state actors.

The Russian government continues to distance itself from Wagner Group’s business interests.

Wagner Group is quite active in Africa and has a significant presence in several countries all over the continent. Russia, through the Wagner Group, has been cosying up to African leaders who express dissent with the United States and its allies. Many of these leaders have been seeking alternative allies to the West.

While China has become the leading economic partner for many African countries, Russia provides military arms and logistical support to many. Wagner Group continues to support various African regimes in quashing rebel movements and dealing with both domestic and external threats within their countries.

Wagner Group has found perfect breeding grounds in West and Central Africa, as countries in this region look to do away with French and American military establishments. Wagner Group has been instrumental is supporting the regimes of President Faustin Touadera in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Col. Assim Goita’s military junta in Mali.

Ukraine’s response to the growing Russian influence in Africa has been reactionary, for the most part. It does not have an established presence on the continent, yet, but has been making inroads trying to find allies and partners.

Case by case: How the Russia-Ukraine war has extended into Africa

Mali

The Malian government led by Assimi Goita has maintained close ties with Russia since it came into power in 2021. Russia is the leading supplier of arms to the country and several Wagner Group units fight within its ranks.

In July 2024, a Malian army contingent was ambushed and attacked by members of a terrorist insurgent group in northern Mali. 54 Malian soldiers and 84 mercenaries of the Wagner Group were killed.

The attack brought to light the integration of Wagner’s units into the Malian army. Mali had expelled the resident French military force in the country, opting to ally with the Russian military instead.

The Russian government claims that there is significant evidence to suggest that Ukraine has taken the side of the rebel, terrorist groups and has been providing them with logistical support to fight the Malian army. Yurii Pyvovarov, The Ukrainian ambassador to Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast and Liberia came under fire for making remarks that seemed to air support for the terrorist attack.

Pyvovarov was summoned by Senegal. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of whom have strong ties to Russia, severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine.

The incident soured relations between Kyiv and much of West Africa. Russia quickly pounced on this backlash, accusing Ukraine of opening a second war front in Africa by supporting rebel terrorist groups.

Central African Republic

The Central African Republic has been one of Russia’s long-standing partners in the region.

Faustin Touadera’s government contracted Wagner Group to help defend against a coalition of Seleka and Anti-Balaka rebel groups who have been wreaking havoc in the country since 2012. It has a standing force of 1500 to 2000 men in the country.

In addition to maintaining a strong military presence that is supportive of the Touadera’s regime, Russia influences the social-cultural arena as it seeks to establish a positive image in the country and beyond.

The Wagner Group has been using funds to set up pro-Russian media outlets e.g. Radio Lengo Sengo, a radio station that has since been internationally sanctioned for airing Russian propaganda. Wagner has also sponsored films depicting Wagner Group personnel defending the country from rebels.

Wagner Group also works with local journalists to establish propaganda campaigns within the country.

As a testament to the close ties with the country, Wagner Group established a cultural centre in the country’s capital dubbed Russia House. Russia House welcomes visitors and locals alike to learn Russian, attend theatres and watch musical performances.

In an interview with DW, Russia House Director Dmitri Sytyi mentions that he considers himself an ‘informal ambassador’ to Russia in the country. Nonetheless, the United States and the EU consider him to be a high-ranking member of the Wagner Group and have placed him under international sanctions.

The Wagner Group has been moving into operating from military outposts and bases vacated by UN peacekeeping forces, which is symbolic of how they are filling the void left behind by the absence of security forces.

Sudan

The Sudan Conflict has been ongoing since April 2023.

The main perpetrators of the conflict are Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan who is the Commander in Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dalgado also known as ‘Hemedti’ who is the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force operating in the country.

Al-Burhan and Hemedti jointly overthrew the civilian-led transitional government established in 2019 following the overthrow of Omar Al-Bashir. Al-Burhan established and led the Transitional Sovereignty Council, which solidified power and ended all efforts towards democracy in the country.

Al-Burhan and Hemedti eventually split, each taking a faction of the country’s armed forces with them.

SAF is globally recognized as the country’s legitimate government entity. RSF was initially formed as a security militia group by Al-Bashir’s government to help tame resistance movements in the Darfur region. It was later established as an ‘independent security force’ and deployed to fight internationally in Yemen and Libya.

SAF enjoys support mainly from Egypt, with whom it has a military cooperation agreement, and Iran. RSF enjoys mass support from the UAE, with whom it developed close ties as it fought against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The Wagner group is also a close ally of RSF. The two have a working relationship that dates back to 2013, at the height of Al-Bashir’s tenure.

That said, the UAE is a chief supplier of arms to the RSF. The supply of these arms is mostly coordinated through the Wagner Group and the Libyan National Army (LNA), another close ally of RSF. LNA also has close ties with the Wagner Group. Wagner Group utilizes its presence in neighbouring Chad, Cameroon and the Central African Republic (CAR) as supply routes and bases for RSF. In exchange, RSF grants Wagner group mining rights in Sudan’s gold mines which are a source of much-needed foreign reserves for a Russia that is bogged down with heavy international sanctions.

All in all, about 90% of RSF weapons are sourced from or through Wagner Group.

In September 2023, Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelensky met with Al-Burhan in Ireland to discuss security challenges facing Ukraine and Sudan, i.e. the growing threat of Russian mercenary forces (the Wagner Group) in Sudan and how to deal with them.

Later that month, a CNN report found that a series of drone strikes carried out on the outskirts of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, against RSF fighters were likely orchestrated by Ukrainian Special Services. This hinted at a potential collaboration between SAF and the Ukrainian military.

Ukrainian Special Forces officers have been quite active in Sudan. A video posted by the Kyiv Post showed Ukrainian military officers interrogating a captured Russian mercenary who claimed to be part of the Wagner Group.

In recent days, however, SAF has been working to woo Russia into collaborating with them. The Sudanese government revived a much-delayed collaboration avenue, offering to let Russia build a naval base near Port Sudan on the Red Sea. This would give Russia a strategic position, especially since most of the world’s trade shipments flow through the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea.

In turn, Russia has promised to offer unrestricted military support to SAF.

Russia is clearly the biggest winner in Sudan. It has managed to take advantage of both warring factions, who are both willing to compromise in exchange for much-needed military support.

Ukraine is also making its message loud and clear. Anyone who teams up with Russia and its mercenary forces will face the full brunt of their militaries. Nonetheless, Ukraine is also on a mission to build its sphere of influence in Africa, pledging to open more embassies in African countries.

Much like in the Cold War, Africa is a conflict-ridden frontier that is open to exploitation and manipulation from International powers who use warring factions as pawns to achieve their military and political interests.

For as long as external powers are involved, conflicts such as the one in Sudan will continue to escalate, putting more innocent lives at risk.

The involvement of these powers in conflict scenarios creates a catch-22 situation for the warring factions involved. Military support is just too good to say no to. Africa does not produce its military weapons and is dependent on military cooperation and agreements with international powers to get them.

Saying no to military support is akin to strengthening your enemy. Saying yes to a country or actor that supplies you with military weapons makes you the enemy of their enemy.

Many African countries wish to stay neutral in most global conflicts. Many African countries are sceptical about getting involved in the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. However, depending on external military support can be the do-or-die factor for warring factions and political regimes seeking to solidify their interests.