Read More: A Beginner’s Guide to Conflict in the South China Sea.
It happened in Kenya: Nairobi’s close ties with Sudan’s RSF
Factions allied to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed an agreement to establish a parallel government in Sudan in Nairobi, Kenya. RSF is the major military outfit fighting against the Sudanese government’s Armed Forces (SAF) in the Sudan conflict which has been ongoing since April 2023.
RSF is accused of serious war crimes in the conflict that amount to gross violations of human rights and genocide. RSF’s leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has been placed under sanctions by the United States for his role in the conflict.
Nairobi was home to a host of delegates representing various civilian factions and military groups fighting in Sudan allied to the RSF. The agreement called for the establishment of ‘a government of national peace and unity’.
RSF currently control vast swathes of Sudan’s western regions encompassing much of Darfur and Kordofan. It has been pushed back from the central region of the country, including the capital city of Khartoum by SAF forces.
Kenya’s President William Ruto has had historically strong ties with RSF’s leader Dagalo. The close ties between the two are perhaps facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has been accused of supporting RSF by supplying them with weapons which are said to be smuggled in through Chad, Libya and South Sudan. Ruto also has close ties with the United Arab Emirates.
Nonetheless, Ruto’s government has been met with huge international condemnation, accused of jeopardizing the peace process in Sudan by supporting a rebel faction. Sudan’s government immediately cut diplomatic ties with the country, recalling its ambassador to Khartoum. Civil societies and the international community at large condemned Kenya’s decision to provide a platform to the rebel movement. Kenyans heaped blame upon their government, terming this as yet another diplomatic blunder.
Speaking of diplomatic blunders, this is only one of several diplomatic missteps taken by Ruto’s government. Government forces are said to have facilitated the abduction of Uganda’s long-standing opposition leader, Kizza Besigye from the country, hence tainting Kenya’s image as a safe haven for political refugees. An attempt to intervene in the current DRC conflict by involving the French President shifted the blame on Kenya and may have resulted in part to Raila’s Odinga’s loss for the AUC bid.
The former Chairperson of Kenya Interim Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Mr Wafula Chebukati passed away on February 20, 2025.
Chebukati took charge of IEBC in January 2017 and was tasked with leading the country through a hotly contested election later that year that pitted then-President Uhuru Kenyatta against opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Following a period of intense tallying and a nail-biting voting contest, Chebukati’s commission announced President Uhuru as the winning candidate. However, an appeal filed at Kenya’s Supreme Court by the opposition outfit led by Raila Odinga was upheld and the results of the elections were annulled. The court ordered that the IEBC conduct fresh presidential elections within 90 days.
The National Super Alliance (NASA), Raila’s opposition outfit, boycotted the subsequent elections, nonetheless. It had taken issue with the IEBC team, blaming it for voting irregularities in the first election and calling for its removal. Nonetheless, the subsequent presidential elections proceeded as planned, and Uhuru was re-elected as President.
As the country’s next general elections came along in 2022, the ghosts of the 2017 elections would haunt Chebukati’s team again. Claims of electoral fraud and voter irregularities would lead the opposition outfit, led by Raila Odinga to lodge another appeal at the Supreme Court challenging William Ruto’s win. This time, however, the courts sided with the IEBC and upheld the result of the election.
More memorably, however, was Chebukati’s role in carrying a fragmented IEBC commission through the election cycle. The cracks in the commission were especially evident during the tallying of results, as several commissioners took issue with the running of the agency.
The commission would eventually split into two, with one faction being led by Chebukati and commissioners Abdi Guliye and Boya Molu. The second, breakaway faction was led by vice chairperson Juliana Cherera flanked by Francis Wanderi, Irene Masit, and Justus Nyang’aya. This faction, dubbed in the media as the ‘Cherera Four’ would openly reject the results of the elections, blaming Chebukati for his authoritarian style of leadership and lack of transparency.
Chebukati leaves behind a chequered legacy. Some celebrate him as a firm and resolute leader, while others view him as an authoritarian who could not have been trusted to deliver free and fair elections.
Chebukati had left IEBC following the expiration of his six-year term in January 2023. He had developed health complications since and kept a low profile, up until the news of his death.
Global events: A win for conservatives in Germany
Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor after winning the country’s snap elections which were held on February 23, 2025. Merz emerged victorious after his party CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany/Christian Social Union in Bavaria) won 28.5% of the vote, edging out Olaf Scholz’s SPD (Social Democratic Party).
Scholz, who is the incumbent chancellor, was forced to initiate snap elections in the country soon after the country’s ruling coalition fell apart. Scholz, elected during the 2021 German Federal Elections, was forced into a coalition with two parties i.e. FDP (Free Democratic Party) and Alliance 90/The Greens to form a majority government. The traffic light coalition, as it was widely referred to, would nonetheless show signs of weakening from the very start.
The parties in the coalition all held different political views. Consequently, this resulted in disagreements concerning the day-to-day running of the country often leading to gridlocks and eventually, an economic crisis in government. Scholz would eventually dismiss the finance minister, Christian Lindner, who was also the leader of the FDP party. The FDP party would walk out of the coalition which necessitated a snap election as there was now no ruling majority in the parliament.
Despite Merz’s winning, more attention has turned to the performance of the AfD (Alternative for Germany), a right-wing political party that has gained massive popularity in the country in recent years. AfD garnered 20.8% of the vote.
The results of the election are representative of a shift to conservatism in the country. However, while the CDU/CSU is an established political movement in Germany and a major political player since the end of the Second World War, AfD is a newer political outfit with more radical conservative beliefs.
AfD opposes immigration policies (mostly popularized during the tenure of Angela Merkel). It is especially outspoken against Muslim immigration stating that Islam is an alien concept to German society. The party’s particular obsession against Islam and Muslims living in the country has drawn comparison to the Nazi party that ruled Germany during the reign of Adolf Hitler. AfD politicians, party members and their supporters have constantly watered down the impact of the Nazi party policies and in some cases even seem to openly embrace them.
AfD’s right-wing rhetoric has also drawn attraction and interest from the United States Republican Party. Elon Musk, the American conservative tech billionaire and a close ally of Donald Trump spoke at AfD’s campaign launch.
Nonetheless, Merz and his party have ruled out the possibility of getting into a coalition with AfD. Nonetheless, given its numbers in the Bundestag (parliament), AfD will be a formidable opposition political force in Germany in the coming days.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using ‘procrastination and stalling tactics’ by Hamas, as Israel withheld the release of 620 Palestinian prisoners who were part of the ceasefire deal. Israel was expected to release the prisoners hours after Hamas handed over six hostages back to Israel.
“In light of Hamas’ repeated violations – including the disgraceful ceremonies that dishonour our hostages and the cynical use of hostages for propaganda – it has been decided to delay the release of terrorists that was planned for yesterday [Saturday] until the release of the next hostages is ensured, without the humiliating ceremonies.”
Benjamin Netanyahu, in an official statement on Sunday, February 23.
Israel had earlier stated that it would withhold the release of Palestinian prisoners until the release of the next batch of Israeli hostages is guaranteed without the ‘degrading handover ceremonies’ in Gaza.
The recent upheaval weakens an already fragile truce between Israel and Hamas and threatens to escalate the conflict back into an all-out war. Netanyahu is a man caught in the middle.
On one hand, a majority of the Israeli population is calling for a pause in all hostilities until all Israeli hostages are handed over from Hamas. Nonetheless, Netanyahu is under pressure from a right-wing Israeli government that is pushing for the resumption of war and the obliteration of Hamas in its entirety.
Despite helping facilitate peace talks between Hamas and Israel, Trump has offered to support Netanyahu should he choose to resume the war in Gaza.
Israel is also shifting attention away from Gaza and has been ramping up military incursions into the West Bank. Nonetheless, Netanyahu actions in ‘slowing down’ the truce might also be evidence of Israel’s reluctance to withdraw from Gaza, which is the second part of the ceasefire/truce agreement with Hamas.
Elsewhere in the Region: Tshisekedi’s headache.
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi announced plans to form a unity government aimed at containing the growing insurgence of M23 rebels in the country.
M23 rebels have taken control of the North and South Kivu provinces in Congo’s mineral-rich eastern region. They are currently in control of the cities of Goma and Bukavu.
According to the DRC Prime Minister Judith Suminwa, more than 7,000 people have died in the conflict since an escalation in hostilities in January 2025.
Rwanda has been accused of backing the M23 rebels and it is believed that more than 4,000 Rwandese troops are fighting alongside the rebels. On its part, Rwanda blames the DRC government for supporting Hutu genocidaires who fought in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Rwanda states that it is only defending the lives and interests of Tutsis and Congolese of Rwandese descent against the so-called Hutu extremists.
To understand the roots of the conflict in eastern DRC, read more on: A Beginner’s Guide to Armed Resistance Movements in DR Congo.
M23 rebels have pledged to march to the DRC capital city of Kinshasa, which is more than 1,000 miles away, to make their grievances heard.
Former DRC President Joseph Kabila accused Tshisekedi of playing a part in the escalation in eastern DRC. Kabila blamed his successor for ‘poor leadership’ in an opinion article published in the South African Sunday Times.
In the article, Kabila criticized Tshisekedi’s leadership berating him for trying to become an ‘absolute ruler of the country’ by silencing the opposition and resorting to ‘intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and extrajudicial executions.’ Kabila noted that escalation of the conflict in DRC has escalated since Tshisekedi assumed power in 2019.
Joseph Kabila assumed power in 2001, ten days after the assassination of his father Laurent-Desire Kabila during the height of the Second Congo War. Kabila served as DRC’s fourth president until 2019 when he chose not to vie for another presidential election. Kabila handed power to Tshisekedi in what was the country’s first peaceful transfer of power since its independence.
The fallout between Kabila and Tshisekedi has been years in the making and Tshisekedi has been on a mission to purge remaining elements of his government who were loyal to Kabila. Kabila’s sentiments can be implied to be supportive of M23’s incursions into the east of DRC and are indicative of close ties to Kigali.
The two-day G20 foreign minister’s summit took place in Johanessburg with the notable absence of one man. The United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The summit is a curtain-raiser event for the G20 summit set to take place in November 2025.
South Africa became the first African country to take charge of the G20 presidency in what was a move expected to give more voices to the global south.
The foreign ministers’ summit plays a major role in informing global interactions as foreign ministers from the world’s biggest powers meet. All of the world’s biggest powers were well represented, except the world’s biggest power, the United States.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cancelled his attendance at the summit following a flurry of backlash between the United States and South Africa.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Land Expropriation Act into law on January 23, 2025. The law outlines a legal framework for the government to acquire and redistribute underutilized private land for public use and purposes, in a way that serves the public good.
The law, which was in consultation for over five years, sought to address the apartheid-era land distribution policies that favoured the country’s white minority.
However, the signing of the law attracted outrage from Donald Trump who stated that it would be unfair and ‘treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY’. Elon Musk, Trump’s close ally who was born and raised in South Africa shared in Trump’s sentiments stating that white South African farmers were in grave danger.
Trump cut US funding to South Africa and opened up US borders for white South African immigrants. Trump also seems to take issue with South Africa’s case at the ICJ (International Court of Justice) which accuses Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of perpetuating war crimes and genocide in Gaza. Trump and Netanyahu are close allies.
In response to Trump’s backlash, Ramaphosa stated that South Africa would not be intimidated.
Marco Rubio chose to support his leader and cancelled his attendance at the G20 summit as well.
Despite Rubio’s absence, the G20 talks continued as planned as discussions were centred on finding resolutions to wars and crises in Europe and Africa. In his opening address, Ramaphosa emphasized the need for the respect of international law and multilateralism in maintaining world peace.
US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent is also expected to miss the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors, scheduled to be held in Cape Town next week.
That’s it for this week!
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