Raila’s AUC chair campaign didn’t exactly go according to plan. But here’s the thing you’ve got to understand about this campaign; there’s more than meets the eye.
Raila Odinga. The name, the legend and the kingpin of domestic and continental politics and the self-proclaimed ‘Lion of Africa’.
Starting February 12-16 this year, the lion was out in Addis Ababa hunting for his next political opportunity. He wished to become the next chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). Would he be successful this time? Or will the lion be forced to switch to a diet of eating grass and chewing cud?
Turns out, the lion can eat grass after all! Raila lost to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf trailing him in the fifth and sixth rounds of voting. Youssouf proceeded to the seventh round alone, where he garnered the two-thirds majority votes needed to win.
There’s a lot I could say and write about Raila Odinga. His political legacy, especially in Kenya, dates back decades. Odinga has played a huge role in shaping Kenya’s democracy. He was a leading general in Kenya’s political multi-party movement in the 1990s. His drawn-out role as the country’s main opposition figure has helped keep past and present regimes in check.
Continentally, Odinga is viewed as an African icon, leading peace-keeping and mediating efforts during the Ivory Coast Crisis in 2011. He was also the African Union’s High Representative for Infrastructure Development, a role which he served from 2018-2023. Nonetheless, it is his zeal to keep democracy alive in Kenya and his grit to continually gun for the country’s top seat that is appealing to most. Despite losing out in Presidential elections five successive times, Raila is showing no signs of slowing down in the political game.
However, this is not an article about Raila’s story and the lead-up to the AUC campaign. We could talk about that for days on end. For that, I’d recommend that you watch this video that I recently published on my YouTube channel.
Instead, I will share my sentiments about the campaign itself, explaining why it had to happen, how it happened, and what will happen, given the election outcome.
Also, I believe that politics is not a game of wins and losses but of outcomes. Good or bad, it all depends on your interpretation. Raila’s loss could be a good or a bad result, depending on who you ask.
Table of Contents
The Roots of Raila’s Campaign.
Raila announced his intention to vie for the AUC Chairmanship position in February 2024. In a much-anticipated move, President William Ruto officially and formally announced that the Kenya Kwanza-led government would endorse Raila’s campaign efforts. Raila’s campaign secretariat and mobilization efforts were placed under the jurisdiction of the country’s foreign ministry and were funded directly by the state.
Since then, Raila had traversed across much of the continent presenting his bid to most, if not all, African heads of state. On the other hand, President William Ruto had also been directly campaigning for the candidate and had made Raila’s campaign part of his diplomatic entourage.
Raila’s decision to vie for a continental seat saw him pivot away from Kenya’s domestic politics, which he has been involved in since the 1970s. In fact, it may be argued that Raila was among the last men standing from a political class responsible for lobbying for and ushering Kenya into the age of multi-party democracy.
Raila may have conquered all there was to be conquered in Kenya’s political space. The chance to head the African Union Commission was a welcome departure for him to serve a larger population on a bigger stage.
However, Raila’s campaign has brought several issues of concern to light which asked questions about his ability and integrity in leading such an important docket of the African Union.
Raila’s Age
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines the term ‘gerontocracy’ as a form of social organization in which a group of old men or a council of elders dominates or exercises control.
Gerontocracies are societies ruled by elders. Much of the developed world is built upon a system of gerontocracies; a system that dates back to the foundations of Greek and Roman civilizations. Consequently, it is engrained across most modern governments from the United States to Russia.
“It is for the elder man to rule and for the younger to submit. Old age has a great sense of calm and freedom when the passions relax their hold, then, as Sophocles says, we are free from the grasp, not of one mad master only, but of many.”
Plato, The Republic, circa 375 BC.
African societies are not much different. In ancient and pre-colonial terms., most African societies were ruled by an older statesman who often governed until their death. Younger rulers were often assisted by a council of older, more wizened and respected individuals.
Today, any society ruled by men above the ‘retirement age’ (say about 65 and above) can be considered a gerontocracy.
Raila Odinga turned 80 on January 7, 2025.
Raila has been in the limelight of Kenyan politics for well over 50 years. He has accomplished much and for all intents and purposes, he needed to take a step back and make room for the young, up-and-coming political class.
However, graduating Raila from domestic politics to the continental realm opened a can of worms.
The AUC Chair is the head of the African Union’s Secretariat; which is tasked with handling the day-to-day activities of the organization. That is in itself a demanding role.
If Raila had served the two, four-year terms allocated for the position, he would have been 88 by the time he retired.
Most of the 80 or 88-year-olds that I know live in retirement homes or under the care of their relatives. They are not shuttling around the continent, solving bureaucratic issues in the fast-paced work environment of a continental organization.
Raila is a strong man, I know. He has proven that age isn’t a factor in slowing him down. However, the effects of old age can creep up unexpectedly, even on the strongest person. I mean, former US President Joe Biden is the perfect example. He went from a firebrand Democratic presidential candidate to ‘an old coot’ by the time he left office four years later.
His age had bigger implications, especially for the continent’s population whose affairs he is meant to handle. Africa is home to the world’s youngest population with a median age of 19.2 years. Africa is also the world’s second most populous continent after Asia.
However, despite having the world’s youngest population, Africa is led by some of the world’s oldest leaders. As of 2024, 11 of the 55 heads of State on the continent were aged 70 and above. These leaders lead governments that are equally saturated by older public servants, most of whom cannot perform their functions effectively enough.
It is not unheard of in Africa to hear news of a head of state being hospitalized abroad due to health complications arising from their old age.
Essentially, Africa is a continent of young men and women governed and ruled by an ageing generation that would rather die than relinquish power. An ageing generation that is hellbent on plundering their countries’ resources, running them to the ground and leaving husks for the younger, more populous generation to eat.
I wouldn’t have been surprised if Raila was elected to the AUC Chair seat. That would play along with the script – Raila is part of this ‘ageing crop of leaders’.
The African Union would never beat the allegations of being an ‘old man’s club’.
Listen, I am not just being dismissive of Raila because of the age factor. I believe that there is a certain wisdom that comes with old age. As one grows older, they become more calm, placid and better at making decisions. Heck, I too will grow old. And I look forward to it.
However, my question is, just how old is too old?
Geo-politics and diplomatic blunders
Before we delve any deeper into Raila’s candidature, let us first address the elephant in the room.
Raila’s campaign enjoyed full support and bankrolling from President William Ruto, a political ally turned foe turned ally again (such is the complex nature of political relationships in this country). Raila’s campaign team was tasked with doing whatever was necessary to ensure that Raila got the seat.
Of all the presidents this country has had since Moi left office, I’d argue that William Ruto has had the weakest foreign policy doctrine.
President Kibaki (2002-2013) focused more on the domestic restructuring of the country, but even then, he built strong relations with international investment partners, facilitating foreign direct investment into the country. President Uhuru (2013-2022) sought non-traditional allies and partners favouring a ‘Look East’ policy that welcomed partnership with China.
President Ruto’s diplomatic doctrine is hard to put a finger on. On paper, he claims to be a Pan-Africanist president who champions African interests yet in practice, he is quite entangled with the West. In just over two years since he was elected president, he has been to every formidable country in the world, spending billions of shillings on lavish tours and travels with nothing major to show.
But he helped Kenya become a major non-NATO ally, you may say. Well, that achieves nothing new that we didn’t already have. As long as no mutual defence pact was signed between Kenya and the United States, that doesn’t count as a win in my book. Plus with Trump in power, most of Ruto’s diplomatic gains with the United States may have just been wiped away.
At the moment, Kenya’s diplomacy is built on a doctrine of “wewe kuja tuongee, hatuwezikosana” i.e. transacting with any and every political entity – so long as those in power get ‘something’ in return.
Consequently, Ruto’s government has been entering into diplomatic relations with everyone – from warlords to rebel movements – in addition to traditional and non-traditional allies.
Ruto’s diplomatic actions could have genuinely hurt Raila’s bid. And historical evidence could back me up on this.
Back in 2017, Kenya fronted its then Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs Amina Mohammed to vie against the incumbent AUC Chair Mahamat Faki from Chad. This was before the 2018 AU institutional reforms that established the current rotational allocation of candidates based on their regional background.
Mohammed enjoyed full state support from the then President Uhuru, much like Raila after her, only to eventually lose out to Mr Faki on the event round of voting. It is believed Amina’s loss could be attributed to Kenya’s regional allies and neighbours who decamped from supporting her in favour of the Chadian candidate.
Uhuru’s government had appointed a team with limited diplomatic backing to be at the forefront of Mohammed’s campaign. Amina’s campaign team didn’t do a great job of appealing to the needs of the continent at the time. A big factor that may have dealt a blow to her campaign bid was the issue surrounding the readmission of Morocco to the AU and the matter of the recognition of the Saharawi Republic.
Raila’s campaign team seemed to have learnt from the 2017 campaign. The main campaign team was comprised of seasoned diplomats and experts in the fields of international relations. However, Ruto’s choice of diplomatic actions perhaps undid any gains made by Raila.
First is the aforementioned close ties his willingness to align with the West. Africa could welcome leadership from a country that seeks to align the continent away from Western dependency. The AU itself is currently, heavily dependent on foreign organizations such as the European Union for funding, donations and logistical support. Raila’s close ties with Ruto perhaps convinced most African countries to look away from voting for his bid.
Recent diplomatic actions pushed African countries away from voting for Kenya’s candidate. President Ruto’s handling of the DRC-Rwanda conflict could have pushed Francophone countries away from siding with Raila. His choice to openly reach out to and work with Western powers (The United States and France) instead of seeking alternative avenues from Africa in resolving the issue was heavily condemned. Many French-speaking African countries are moving away from long-standing colonial ties with their colonial overlord.
Diplomacy is a delicate game of balancing interests for favourable outcomes. So far, Kenya’s diplomatic outgoings still leave much to be desired. One diplomatic miss-step could have just broken Raila’s ambitions.
Who would have benefited from Raila’s win?
But who would have gained had Raila won, really?
Most of Raila’s supporters and campaign team have been quick to point out that Kenya would have gained from a Raila win.
However, let’s unpack this argument.
First of all, Raila was not meant to be elected to represent the country in the position of AUC Chair. He was being elected in a personal capacity to head a department of the continental organization. The role is quite influential, I must say, but realistically speaking, Kenya wouldn’t have benefited directly should he win the seat.
I mean, sure, he might have used the influential position to extend lobbying for Kenyan interests at a continental and international level. Nonetheless, I do not believe that is worth the amount of clout, anticipation and monetary investment behind Raila’s campaign. In other words, the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.
Raila might have done a good job of improving the capacity of the African Union to foster unity, peace and prosperity on the continent; in a manner that would benefit Kenya in tremendous ways. This a big might.
The African Union is going through tons of challenges that cannot be solved by the efforts of one man, let alone Mahmoud Youssouf or Raila Odinga.
Now, this begs the question, if Raila’s chances of winning the elections and delivering on his promises were so up in the air, why did our government spend a ton load of money and resources to campaign for him?
Back in 2017, Amina Mohammed’s AUC Campaign left a (US$ 3.5 Million) Ksh 451.7 Million hole in Kenya’s public coffers. Kenya’s government officials have been tight-lipped on stating how much Raila’s campaign has cost the country. In this case, expect the figures to be way higher.
Now that Raila has lost, this could come back to bite Ruto’s government. Kenyans will be mad that the government was willing to spend so much to fuel an individual’s political ambitions; especially at a time when the country is economically unstable. Raila may choose to indulge back into domestic politics, albeit from the sidelines, threatening the dominance of Ruto’s political stance.
The wind has blown and the emperor’s backside has been exposed. Now the chickens might just be on their way home to roost.
Here’s what I feel about the nature of the Raila campaign. Raila is a volatile and polarizing figure when he is politically active. He is also fondly known by the name ‘Aguambo’ which means ‘the mysterious one’ in Dholuo, true to his nature. President Ruto views Raila’s presence in Kenya’s domestic political atmosphere as a threat to his political ambitions. Therefore, shuttling him away to the continental realm would have eased the pressure in his political backyard.
Think of the AUC Chair position as Raila’s retirement package, gifted to him by Ruto’s government ‘on behalf of the Kenyan people’. The man has fought relentlessly to become Kenya’s president, losing five consecutive times. How about rewarding him with the next-best thing?
That didn’t exactly go to plan now, did it?
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