But who was Raila Odinga, really?

It feels hard to accurately describe the atmosphere that is heavy in the air at the moment as the country still grapples with the reality of his death.

You see, Raila was no mere political figure. He was a force of nature. An enigma, whose voice was heard and respected by many.

Yet still, he was at the heart of the cacophonous stampede characteristic of Kenya’s ‘democratic’ political system, which made him friends and enemies, supporters and critics in equal regard.

That said, to understand the son, you must first know of the father.

Like father, like son

Neo-colonialism, after all, is not centered in a vacuum. It is built on to the previous colonial history of the country which it operates, from the foundations that the colonial regime lays before its ostensible departure. The object of neo-colonialism is to ensure that power is handed to men who moderate and easily controlled, political stooges. Everything is done to ensure that the accredited heirs of colonial interests capture power…..The constitutions that were improvised incorporated provisions that gave institutional form to the forces of distrust and disunity which had been fostered.

Oginga Odinga, Not Yet Uhuru (1967), p.256

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga is one of Kenya’s founding fathers, widely regarded as one of the instrumental figures at the heart of Kenya’s independence movement.

As the Mau Mau movement simmered into the object of Kenya’s independence struggle in the 1950s, many of its leaders – alongside others from other nationwide independence movements, were either murdered or more infamously, jailed. In an effort to quell the dissent, the colonial government locked up the vocal voices from all over the country in an isolated detention camp in one of Kenya’s frontier districts. Nonetheless, that did little to help the situation. The Kapenguria Six became the symbols of national unity in the collective struggle to build a nation.

Jaramogi was one of the leaders calling for independence who remained free, and he put his freedom to good use. When the country was eventually freed from the shackles of colonial struggle in 1963, he ostensibly became the country’s first vice president under Jomo Kenyatta’s government.

Despite the shared experience in the independence struggle, Jaramogi and Kenyatta differed quite a lot ideologically. Kenyatta had long-standing ties with the west, and especially Britain, Kenya’s immediate former colonizer. The eventual fallout would eventually come in 1966, with Jaramogi walking away from his role as vice president to form his own political party. It didn’t help that the world was at the heart of a vicious cold war, and Jaramogi’s socialist ideologies would attract the reprehension of Kenyatta’s government.

In his 1967 autobiography, Not Yet Uhuru, Jaramogi did not hold back with offering a scathing take on the state of Kenya’s newly independent government. He argued that despite the independence from Britain, Kenya still lacks the freedom to indulge in social and economic dependence. Jaramogi faulted Kenyatta’s government with keeping the colonial system alive through what he termed as a ‘frenzy to corrupt leaders at all levels with the temptations of office and property, and preferably both’.

Jaramogi would form his political party, Kenya’s People’s Union in 1969, which Kenyatta’s government would regard as a communist threat. Therefore, the party was banned and Jaramogi was detained for 18 months, with an extended period of house arrest up until Kenyatta’s death in 1978.

Jaramogi’s pre and post independence efforts fighting for the rights of the Luo community against the oppressive rule of successive colonial and post-colonial governments transformed him into a fearless and accomplished political figure in Kenya. He and his family gained huge respect from within the Luo community — and he remains idolized in death as he was in life.

Jaramogi’s legacy casts a long shadow, and his son Raila Odinga was equal to the occasion of his standing upon the shoulders of his father.

When Jaramogi passed on in 1994, the reverence accorded to him was inadvertently passed on to his son, Raila. Raila had continued with his father’s legacy, championing for the rights of the Luo community and striving for democracy and political freedom in Kenya.

In 1970, upon finishing his studies in East Germany, Raila thrust himself into the political scene headlong, fighting against the Moi regime that had taken over in 1978. Under the tutelage of his father, Raila continued to campaign against the oppressive one-party political system in Kenya.

Nonetheless, he was accused of being a co-conspirator in the attempted coup of 1982, and was imprisoned without trial for six years. Eventually, Moi was forced to cave under political pressure in 1992, reinstating political freedom in and paving the way for the first multi-party general elections in the country since 1963.

However, a divided opposition handed the presidency back to Moi, and he would remain in power for ten more years, up until 2002.

Raila Odinga would first vie for the presidency in 1997 under National Democratic Party (NDP), a political outfit which he had formed after being forced out of FORD-Kenya, the political party formed by his father in the advent of multi-party politics.

And for five subsequent general elections (save for 2002), Raila vied for the Presidency – and lost each time.

That said, each of the losses at the ballot amount are a placeholder in the story of Raila’s political journey; which is perhaps riddled with defiance, ambition and to some, betrayal.

In cahoots with the enemy

The 1997 General Election signalled the entrance of Raila into a mainstay position within the national political arena. Daniel Moi was reelected into a second consecutive term, perhaps in part due to the fragmented nature of opposition alongside tribal chasms – if at all the elections counted as free and fair. However, Raila still managed to finish in a respectable third, buoyed by the votes from his Luo-Nyanza stronghold.

In the aftermath of these elections, Raila would indulge in what would become a telling pattern in his political trajectory. By the end of 2001, he’d shifted camp and merged the NDP party with the Moi government, a government he’d grown fighting against for much of his political career till then.

The merger felt as a necessary move for Moi’s KANU as the party’s political influence faded away in the face of a united opposition front, and calls for a transfer of power from KANU. KANU had been the ruling party since independence, holding on to power for an uninterrupted period lasting thirty-nine years. A change of guard was needed, or at least, most Kenyans felt so.

Trouble was brewing up within KANU. Moi already had a handpicked successor in Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s first president Jomo Kenyatta. The decision did not sit well with a faction of the KANU party, particularly the new cohort that had joined in during the KANU-NDP merger. Raila’s faction pushed for an internal vote to be held to determine the party’s presidential candidate for the 2002 general elections. Moi would hear none of it.

Therefore, Raila led his faction, the Rainbow Alliance, out of the party and into the midst of the burgeoning opposition which had thronged under Mwai Kibaki’s presidential bid. The alliance, which had found political grounds in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) threw its weight of support under Mwai Kibaki, with Raila famously decreeing ‘Kibaki Tosha’ (Kibaki is enough) at an infamous political rally at Uhuru Park.

Kibaki soundly defeated Uhuru at the 2002 polls. For their support, Raila and his compatriots would be rewarded with influential positions in the new government and Raila was appointed as the Minister for Roads, Public Works and Housing.

The unpredictable one

Two key themes emerged from Raila’s political career from between 1997 and 2002; disappointment and compromise. Raila’s political influence, which grew to be even more significant after 2002, gave him huge political sway which he would leverage in running for the country’s top position. When this would prove unsuccessful, at times to no fault of his own, he would resort to crossing the bridge, renouncing his role in the opposition and ‘making peace’ with the government in power.

Many may point to this as evidence for his unpredictable nature, which perhaps made him untrustworthy for ‘betraying the cause’. So much so that he was christened with the Luo nickname ‘Agwambo’, meaning ‘the unpredictable one’. However, I’d reckon that this is an unmerited oversimplification of the matter. Yes, he may have wished to fuel his own political ambitions in doing so; how many of us wouldn’t have done the same given his position? Nevertheless, that cannot be used as a justification to whitewash the efforts he made in fighting for the democratic freedoms that we as a country enjoy today.

He fiercely stood up against the Moi regime, enduring years of torture, imprisonment and exile to fight for a multipartisan and inclusive government. And much like his father, he did not falter from standing up for constitutionalism, freedom of speech and expression and the rule of law, at times in the face of death.

That said, disappointments and compromise became the harbingers that hang over his head like a dark cloud for the entirety of his political journey. Often times, the dark cloud would open up to a torrential downpour that would soak up his political aspirations, but each time he’d get up and try again. Takes a lot of resilience to do so, if you ask me.

Cracks and a messy fallout

As the Kibaki regime wore on, cracks began to appear in the NARC coalition that had propelled him to power. Raila and a section from the LDP felt shortchanged, believing that they were getting sidelined in favor of political elements closer to Mwai Kibaki. A big breaking point came in the failure of, or atleast, slow trudging of the creation of a Prime Minister post within Kibaki’s government.

The MOU signed in the formation of the NARC coalition in 2002 had detailed for the creation of an executive prime minister post in coupled with that of a ceremonial president. The reasoning behind this was to limit the powers on the executive, and particularly the Presidency, which Moi has wielded to maintain absolute control over the government. It was expected that the prime minister post would be filled by Raila, given his role in championing for Kibaki’s election in 2002.

To satisfy, and coincidentally counter these concerns, Kibaki’s government initiated a constitution review process in 2003 which resulted in a resolution to create the prime minister post but making it subordinate to the presidency. The resolution was put to a public referundum in 2005.

As expected, Raila openly defied this proposition and decampaigned against it in the referendum. This put him in direct loggerheads with Kibaki and cost him his ministerial position. Nonetheless, it was not be in vain as the resolution was rejected at the ballot and the prime minister post would not be created – for now atleast.

By 2006, the Raila-Kibaki fallout was in full effect and as the 2007 general elections drew closer, it was evident that Raila would be Kibaki’s main rival at the ballot.

Raila was still riding on success of his “orange movement” from the referendum polls and decided to transform it into a political movement – The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). As 2007 approached, Kibaki would pick up the pieces which remained of the NARC coalition, and merged these with splinter elements from KANU to create the Party of National Unity (PNU).

The ghosts of 2007/08

The 2007 General Election is one of, if not the most controversial political event in Kenyan history. It is the kind of a political event that would get people to put their tinfoil hats and come up with a whole range of conspirancy theories about it. The reality of the matter is that was no ‘clear winner’, on paper at least.

“I do not know whether Kibaki won the election”.

Samuel Kivuitu, the then Chairman of the Electoral Commission on January, 02, 2008

Raila’s ODM had won a sweeping majority of legistlative seats and as the presidential results came in, it was evident that Raila was on a comfortable ‘headstart’, and perhaps on his way to victory. A controversial electoral process saw votes from Kibaki’s stronghold declared last, with indications that their numbers had been inflated. Kibaki was hurriedly sworn in for his second term, in the cover of darkness no less, on December 30th, 2007. The ‘official results’ declared him the winner narrowly beating Raila by 200,000 votes.

Raila was quick to dispute the results and what followed was a bloodbath fueled by ethnic violence that resulted in the deaths of more 1,300 people and the internal displacement of 600,000 more. A UN-led intervention, led by then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan was needed, which resulted in the formation of a Grand Coalition government.

The Kriegler and Waki Reports, which were based off the findings of an independent review commission set up by the Kenyan government in February 2008 found evidence of widespread electoral malpractice and failed to established who exactly won the elections.

Kibaki and Raila were forced into a power-sharing agreement, locally dubbed as “nusu mkate” or ‘half bread’ and Raila was appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister on April 17, 2008. Alas, it had all come full circle. Raila did get to become Prime Minister after all.

However, the cracks of the Raila-Kibaki joint government would continue to show, as qualms emerged between either camp. However, the two leaders teamed up to campaign for a new constitution in 2010, which sought to rebuild the systems of governance and give equitability and access to all. The country needed healing from the aftermath of the 2007/08 post-election violence and for once, the political bickering had to move to the background.

Doomed for the opposition?

As the 2013 elections rolled around, Raila had a new challenger for the throne in Uhuru Kenyatta, who had been building up a political standing for himself, following his unsuccessful jab at the presidency in 2002. Kenyatta teamed up with William Ruto, a key political figure from the Rift Valley region with huge sway over the Kalenjin community. Uhuru and Ruto had ongoing cases at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over their alleged involvement in 2007/08 post election violence.

Uhuru and Ruto lead an enthusiastic campaign that, despite the ICC cases that hung above them, won them the vote in 2013. Raila disputed the results of the election at the Supreme Court, but his case was unscruplously thrown out and the results of the election were upheld.

For the first time in his political career, Raila soundly settled into his role as the leader of the opposition, soundly critiquing policies put in place by Uhuru’s government and offering a counterweight to the political rhetoric. I’d argue that this was Kenya’s most illustrious democratic phase; perhaps paling in comparison only to the immediate aftermath of the 2002 elections. That said, the 2017 elections brought an even bigger win to Kenya’s democracy.

In the lead-up to the elections, questions were being raised on the capacity of Kenya’s electoral body, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commision (IEBC) to conduct free and fair elections. The ghosts of 2007 remained fresh in the minds of many, and many of the electoral reforms proposed since then were yet to be executed. A lot of these questions came from Raila’s camp, and some of these questions raised genuine concerns that would be evident in the 2017 elections.

Uhuru and Ruto would stand for relection in October 2017, coasting to an even ‘easier’ victory. However, Raila’s camp lodged a petition with the Supreme Court, arguing that the elections had been fraught with irregularities and were thus, compromised. The Supreme Court, led by the Chief Justice David Maraga, sided with Raila, nullifying the results and ordered for fresh presidential elections within 60 days.

The Supreme Court pronouncement was unprecedented for an African country. For a continent riddled with an unending dictatorship and authoritarian fever, it was almost unheard of that a court – no less the highest court in the land – would side against the regime in power, especially on a decision as monumental as deciding the outcome of a presidential election.

As the country geared up for a fresh set of elections, Raila’s camp under the NASA coalition continued to express disatisfaction with IEBC’s capacity to handle free and fair elections. Raila officially withdrew from participating in the elections, which paved the way for a Kenyatta re-election – despite little to no turnout in NASA’s strongholds.

On the other hand, Raila called for a civil disobedience campaign, coupled with economic boycotts and peaceful demonstrations. On January 30th, 2018, in what was the culmination of true opposition, NASA conducted a ‘swearing-in ceremony’ for Raila Odinga as the official ‘people’s president’., based off what it termed as the ‘real results of the elections’. Uhuru’s governement termed the act as ‘treasonous’.

As a result, it initiated a purge against NASA’s resistance movement, cracking down on demos (most times, violently) and arresting the leaders of the movement. It all started to get ugly, undoing the gains done over the past decade and threatening to take the country back down to the chaos of 2007/08.

Handshakes, Handshakes, Handshakes

In March 2018, Uhuru and Raila mended fences in a now-infamous ‘handshake; moment at Uhuru’s presidential offices. The two leaders began work on the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which sought to identify Kenya’s pressing problems and challenges to peace and cohesion between ethnic groups in the country, and actively propose recommendations for their resolution. The result was a constitutional amendment bill passed by both houses which was meant to enact a referendum process.

However, a petition filed at the High Court in 2021 froze the BBI process in its tracks. The subsequent High Court ruling challenged the legitimacy of the BBI process, terming it as unconstitutional and arguing that the attempt to ammend the constitution should have been initiated by popular initiative. In the judiciary’s eyes, BBI seemed like the pet project of two political leaders and lacked the constitutional bandwidth needed to be of use in enacting the constitutional reforms it proposed.

The decision was upheld by the Supreme Court in March 2022.

The BBI fallout was testament to deeper political jitters that had taken root in the Uhuru administration. Despite the good intentions potrayed by the ‘handshake’, some in the ruling party – Jubilee – now felt sidelined by the entrance of Raila into the governing fold. Then Deputy President William Ruto felt particularly disgruntled.

For William Ruto, Raila was not just seeking to mend fences with the Uhuru administration. Much like in 2002, he was seeking to utilize the support of the government in power as a vehicle to carry his bid for the Presidency in the 2022 elections. To Ruto, this would amount as the ultimate act of betrayal since he believed that he’d served as Uhuru’s deputy for 10 years on the understanding that the ruling party would support his presidential bid in 2022. Raila’s influence was nothing to scoff at and his newly-found, close access to the President could sway support and a much needed endorsement in the 2022 elections.

An eventful fall-out followed as Ruto led a significant walk-out out of the Jubilee Party and into a rival party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in 2021. The events of 2001-2002 were indeed playing out only this time, Raila was on the receiving of mutiny against the government he chose to support.

Battlelines were drawn, and for quite the while, Ruto became the rebellious ‘leader of opposition’ despite his official capacity as the country’s deputy president. While Ruto rode on the growing popularity of his political outfit particularly in Uhuru’s political backyard of the Kikuyu nation, Raila and Uhuru entered into an official coalition to support his bid for the 2022 presidency – The Azimio la Umoja Coalition. On the other hand, Ruto’s UDA party entered into a coalition of it’s own – the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

Come August 2022, and despite a neck-and-neck encounter, Raila would narrowly lose to Ruto at the polls. Ruto’s populist ‘hustler nation’ ideology which was built solely on attacking the ‘deep state’ machinery proved too much to handle. Ruto took open jabs at Raila and Uhuru, accusing them of abusing their positions of established political acumen to hold the country under state capture. His hustler narrative promised to free up acces to resources for all, and especially the everyday working Kenyan or ‘the hustler’.

Once again, Raila lodged an appeal at the country’s Supreme Court on the election’s outcome, but his allegations of electoral malpractice were thrown out as being ‘hot air’. Unfortunately, he would be forced to sit on the sidelines of the government in leading the opposition.

So far, Raila had come up short against every presidential candidate that had challenged him for the seat – Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru and now, Ruto. But as fate would have it, he would have one last chance to jump on the bandwagon and become part of government that he was meant to be in opposition against.

By 2024, cracks were appearing in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration. Ruto had promised to fight corruption and undo the so-called ‘state capture’, but his government ended up becoming the very monster it had pledged to slay. Corruption was off the roof, public expenditure spending was at an all-time high and Ruto’s government was drowning in debt.

An unpopular Finance Bill which amongst many other things, sought to increase taxation rates sparked spontaneous protests across the country that were mostly occasioned by the youth. On June 25th, 2024, the mother of all protests at the heart of Nairobi’s CBD resulted in the overrun of the Parliament Buildings, forcing the lawmakers who had just passed the Bill into hiding. Unfortunately, then and in the days that followed, many protestors were also unlawfully arrested, beaten and killed by a reprehensive police force acting on Ruto’s orders to quelle the protests by all means possible.

It was at the peak of this unrest that Raila re-entered into the picture. In what can only be termed as ‘handshake 2.0’, Raila was offered a seat alongside Ruto as a means to create an ‘inclusive’, broad-based governement. The deal saw the appointment of Raila’s closest political allies into Ruto’s cabinet.

FYI, Raila had little if anything to do with the genesis of the protests, despite the fact his ODM party had remained starkly in the opposition. The protests marked the first time in Kenya’s history that political unrest emerged entirely organically. Many, including myself, believe that the mending fences between Raila and Ruto was an act of misdirection that ignored the real elephant in the room. Kenya’s economy had been mismanaged for years through bad governance and the people, especially the those in the younger demographic had finally had enough.

That said, up until his death, Raila remained in good terms with the Ruto government. Earlier in 2025, Ruto’s government actively financed and supported Raila’s unsuccessful bid for the chairmanship position at the African Union Commission.

We won’t Forget Raila’s AUC Chair Campaign Anytime Soon.

But who was Raila Odinga really? Was he just the substance of his long-standing political career? Or was he something more?

Raila the enigma

It can be easy to make assumptions on Raila’s true identity based off the hits and misses from his long-standing political career. However, to understand the man Raila, on must look deeper at, not just his political scorecard but also at the sociological ties between him and his community of supporters who loyally endeared and venerated him.

As mentioned earlier, the Odinga family holds a special place in the hearts of the Luo community. Much of this stems from the colonial days and Jaramogi’s role in fighting for their needs against the British colonialists. Many decades later, Raila would assume a similar role, only this time he was fighting for the needs of his community and those of the larger Western region at a national level.

Yet again, Raila didn’t just fight for the needs of his own community. His long-standing opposition role was an attractive prospect to those who felt isolated by succesive governments.

Kenya’s constitutional architecture owes a lot to the efforts of Raila and many like him. At a regional and international level, he was highly regarded as a champion for peace and democratic freedoms.

Raila stood up at every successive election to vie for a seat that he felt was rightfully his. He lost every time, and at times his victory was snatched away from him. He never gave up and wouldn’t give in without a fight, at the courts or in the streets.

Nonetheless, he too had a price. Each time, he would eventually compromise to make amends with whoever was in power. At times, this felt as the right thing to do as he’d chose to prioritize the unity of the country over his own political aspirations. The aftermath of 2007 and the 2018 handshake are good examples of this.

Other times, the motives were less clear. His handshake into a broad-based government with President Ruto left a bitter taste in the mouths of many, especially the youths who felt that he had betrayed them. This last chapter of political career may have tainted his legacy to an extent, as he seemed to change tune and be in cahoots with Ruto’s evidently corrupt regime.

One cannot speak of Raila’s legacy without mentioning the ODM party. This is a party that has stood the test of time, in a country where parties play a minor role in defining political identity. Political parties in Kenya are mere tools of convenience, used to push for a political milestone, i.e. the General Elections. As alliances shift and political allegiances morph, so too do the political parties rise and fall alongside them.

Many influential parties have risen and fallen over the years in Kenya’s political scene. In the early 1990s, the FORD party emerged as among the first brainchilds of Kenya’s multiparty scene. Over the years other parties such as the Democratic Party (DP), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), NARC-Kenya, the Party of National Unity (PNU), The National Alliance party (TNA), United Republic Party (URP), ODM-Kenya (now the Wiper Party), the Amani National Congress (ANC) amongst many more would emerge. Most of these parties lasted no longer than a single electoral cycle, two if they were lucky.

Most of these parties would either fold or were absorbed into larger parties and/or coalitions. For example, TNA and URP parties (Kenyatta’s and Ruto’s political outfits for the 2013 elections) would dissolve into the Jubilee Party for the 2017 elections. Even those that remained independent e.g. FORD-Kenya and KANU are a miniscule shadow of their former selves.

The ODM party has remained steadfast and resilient, carving out a political identity for itself in the face of Kenya’s political scene. Much of this can be attributed to Raila’s leadership and influence. Raila had a knack for picking out up and coming political leaders from all over the country – especially in his political strongholds and mentouring their political careers. Most of the politicans allied to the party owe their political successes directly to Raila.

ODM is popular among the Luo community but Raila had transformed it into a national political identity, with members from all over the country and from all communities and walks of life.

Raila was a self-styled, hands-on leader who directly involved himself in the party’s affairs and had forged a deep connection with many members of the party – politicians and non-politicians alike. He was always in the thick of things, from leading delegate conferences to getting actively teargassed when leading protests in the streets.

It is perhaps why Raila was endeared, to an extent never seen for any political leader in Kenya or elsewhere in the region. The people loved him, and he loved them back; showing up to fight for and with them, sometimes with perilous risk of death hanging over his head.

However, Raila’s approach to leadership could also what spells doom for the party. Raila called all the shots in ODM, and had the final say on what decisions the party took. With him gone, it leaves a gaping leadership vacuum in the party which could make for a chaotic turn of events as power struggles from within and without take hold.

Raila had no favourites and didn’t quite pick a ‘successor’ of sort to take over after he was gone, which means that the direction and vision of the party may have died with him. If the events from his burial ceremony are anything to go by, the next couple of months will be make or break for the party.

Many had expected that Raila’s eldest son Fidel, who unceremoniously and unexpectedly died in 2015 might have been the heir to his father’s throne. One may argue that his daughter, Winnie Odinga, maybe the one to inherit her father’s political grit but even then, Raila’s shoes may be too big to fill at the end of the day.

So, make what you will of Raila and all that his stood for, but one thing sure is for certain, Kenya in its current form would not exist without him. Kenya owes a lot to him, and it is gonna to take us a while to fully comprehend what his absence means for the country.

Rest in Peace, Baba.

Thu Tinda.