Ruto and Raila make their ‘political marriage’ official, signing a collaboration agreement between their respective political factions. Canada gets a new leader as it gears up to Trump and tensions escalate in South Sudan.
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It happened in Kenya: Ruto-Raila Political Bromance
Well, well, well.
The ghosts of ‘serikali ya nusu mkate’ are real after all.
Following his election as President in 2022, President William Ruto swore that he would not be forced into any sort of alliance with his opposition candidate, Raila Odinga. Ruto blamed Raila for the fallout between him and Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenyatta’s second term.
But here’s the thing with Raila Odinga. The man is inevitable; he may have lost the Presidential election five times, but he will still find a way into the heart of government.
In 2001, Odinga entered into a coalition government with President Moi. When the two fell out shortly after, Odinga left in a huff, entering into a coalition movement with the then high-flying Presidential candidate, Mwai Kibaki. Kibaki was elected into office in 2002, but by the next election cycle, Odinga had fallen out with him too and vied against him in the 2007 elections. Odinga and Kibaki were forced into a coalition government in 2007, following Kibaki’s controversial win and the aftermath of the 2007 Post-Election Violence. Uhuru emerged as a formidable candidate in 2013, defeating Odinga in two consecutive presidential elections before the two leaders entered into a coalition in 2018.
So, it was only a matter of time before Ruto would find himself in a coalition government with Odinga. A lot has happened since his election in 2022, and his pledge to not enter into a coalition with Raila Odinga. A series of punitive government policies including various ridiculous tax measures, widespread corruption and gross government inefficiency have left his regime unpopular, which capitulated in anti-government protests in 2024.
Ruto is now scrambling to secure and legitimize his political stance. Hence why he extended an olive branch to the opposition movement in a move to create a broad-based government. Ruto’s government supported Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission Chair position, which Raila lost out on. And now that Raila is back in the country’s domestic political scene, Ruto has had to move quickly to tie up any loose ends. Raila is a loose canon that could blow up in Ruto’s face.
Read More: Why we won’t forget Raila’s AUC Chair bid anytime soon
The two leaders met on Friday, March 7 at the Kenya International Conference Center (KICC) where they signed a cooperation agreement; as a way to make their new-found ‘alliance’ official.
The rationale behind this Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) can be attributed to the need for political stabilization, heading into the 2027 general elections. Some call a revitalization of Kenya’s democratic climate. I call it a show of smoke and mirrors. The agreement is yet another agreement between members of the political elite, that will do little to make life better for the ordinary Kenyan.
The agreement highlights 10 key areas of cooperation between the two leaders;
- Full implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, which was adopted by the National Assembly on February 22, 2024. The NADCO report called for an overhaul of Kenya’s electoral system.
- Inclusivity across all spheres of public life.
- Protection and strengthening of devolution.
- Promoting and protecting the livelihoods of young people.
- Leadership, integrity and the end of opulence.
- Upholding the right to protesting and peaceful assembly, and the compensation of all victims of brutality during the protests.
- An audit of national debt; establishing how much has been used and how it has been used.
- Fighting against corruption; moving from talk to action.
- Stopping the wastage of public resources and the promotion of government efficiency.
- Protecting the sovereignty of the people, the rule of law and constitutionalism
Sounds good on paper, right? Yeah, but again, this would not be the first time that members of Kenya’s political elite have met to formulate such an agenda for the people. If anything, President Ruto’s own political manifesto that catapulted him to the Presidency in 2022 promised to transform Kenya into a 21st-century Canaan. Promises and pledges are something politicians have in abundance. Nonetheless, action is rare.
Global Events: Trump’s tariff-mania
Canada now has a new Prime Minister. Mark Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, was overwhelmingly elected as the new head of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party, and hence, the country’s Prime Minister.
Canada’s election follows the stepping down of Justin Trudeau in January, following growing political dissent against him.
Carney’s election came at a crucial time when Canada must set itself up for a potential trade war with Donald Trump and the United States. He is remembered for his role in steering Canada out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and is globally recognized as an influential leader.
Most Canadians in the liberal party view him as a strong figure in countering the growing conservative movement, which has been on the rise not only in Canada but across much of Europe and the Americas. However, he may be Canada’s most suitable leader in confronting Trump head-on.
Carney will take over from Justin Trudeau and will lead the country into General Elections, which are to be held no later than October 20, 2025.
Trump has been on an offensive against most of the United States’ traditional allies whom he accuses of taking advantage of the United States, especially in unfair trade deals and policies. Trump is pushing a nationalistic fervour aimed at incentivising domestic production and limiting imports into America. Therefore, he has been imposing tariffs on some of America’s trading partners, with Canada topping off that list.
Trump’s offensive with Canada goes beyond a trade war. He has threatened to make Canada the United States’ 51st state, citing the country’s overdependence on the United States.
Carney acknowledged that Canada has allowed its economy to become ‘weak’, leaving it vulnerable to Trump’s trade offensive. The country, like much of the West, is going through a recession which has weakened its economy which needs restructuring to build long-term sustainability.
“I know how to manage crises,” Carney said during a debate for his party’s leadership. “I know how to build strong economies.”
Trump blames Canada for not addressing the flow of illegal migrants and fentanyl across its borders into the United States. Trump’s claims hold little factual evidence.
In 2024, 24,000 people were arrested by the Royal Canadian Police for attempting to cross into the United States illegally, a far cry from figures alleged by Trump of over 200,000 people. Furthermore, despite the ‘fentanyl epidemic’ in the United States, only a very negligible amount of the drug comes from Canada. Most of the illegal fentanyl shipments into the country actually come from China, Mexico and India.
Nonetheless, the Canadian government has beefed up security on its border with the United States at the cost of over US$ 1.5 Billion.
Despite the reality of the matter, Trump’s administration declares the situation on its northern border with Canada as a ‘national emergency’.
In an executive order signed on February 1, Trump introduced an additional blanket tariff of 25% on all goods from Canada into the United States. Energy resources would have a lower tariff rate of 10%. Trump had suspended the tariffs for a month or so to make way for negotiations, but the tariffs are expected to come into force on Wednesday, March 12.
Canada has pledged to retaliate with its own set of tariffs on US goods worth US$155 Billion.
Elsewhere in the Region: Tensions in South Sudan
The United States Department of State issued a statement calling for the evacuation of all American non-essential staff from South Sudan on Sunday, March 8.
This follows recent tensions in the country, arising from a confrontation between the country’s armed forces and rebel forces in the Upper Nile State.
Peace has been long elusive in the country which has continued to struggle in rebuilding itself after years of a protracted civil war.
South Sudan gained independence in 2011, making it the world’s youngest country to date. However, just two years after independence, a civil war pitting President Salva Kiir Maryadiit against Riek Machar erupted. More than 400,000 people were killed before the eventual peace negotiations in 2018 that resulted in the establishment of a coalition government. Machar was offered the position of First Vice President in Salva Kiir’s government.
The conflict is far from resolved and the peace achieved remains fragile at best, especially given that some of the key provisions in the peace agreement are yet to be met. A new constitution, an election and the reintegration of all armed groups into the army have yet to be executed.
In a statement issued on March 7, 2025, President Salva Kiir confirmed that rebel forces aligned to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) attacked a military base in Nasir, Upper Nile State on March 4, 2025. SPLA-IO overwhelmed the base, which was under the command of General Majur Dak Thel. Gen. Majuk refused to surrender and continued to hold his ground, awaiting support from the UN Mission forces.
SPLA-IO opened fire at the UN forces who arrived to rescue the Sudanese Army forces, resulting in the death of a UN crew member. Gen. Majuk would also be killed in a subsequent rescue mission on March 7.
SPLA-IO is linked to Riek Machar. The recent escalation in fighting led to the arrest of two government ministers and a deputy army chief linked to Machar.
Local and international are raising genuine fears of the re-eruption of a civil war in the country, even as much of the world’s attention remains fixated on the conflict in Sudan, the country’s northern neighbour.
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